FluxVlog

Renee Miiler answers your fantasy football lineup questions leading up to kickoff.

Renee Miller

(Photo: Mike Carlson / Getty Images)

20 New Updates

Week 14! Let's answer your questions.

Good morning fantasy footballers! We’ve got a bunch of divisional matchups today, which are often tough, not to mention iffy weather in New York and potentially other East Coast stadiums. I’ve tried to prioritize the win and get in questions – you know I love some context in my questions.

As I wrote earlier this week, this is the time of year to throw out all preconceived notions and make decisions like a beginner. If you knew nothing about ADP or years of player history, what would you do? That might mean sitting a highly drafted, big-name player in a terrible spot today. No offense, Tony Pollard. Take a fresh look at your options without the baggage of ownership biases, unmet expectations or pressure to somehow win in the least likely most exciting way. It’s just about doing the things that give you the highest odds of a win.

Give me Mingo over Thielen

Q: Thoughts on Jonathan Mingo vs. Adam Thielen this week against the Saints, but also moving forward with the coaching change? - Patrick T.

I think it’s Mingo. There’s a chance that New Orleans puts more effort into guarding Thielen, but I think there’s a changing of the hierarchy happening in Carolina since the coaching changes.

Mingo is going to get a chance to showcase what he can be for the team with Bryce Young so while it might be rough today, I believe he’ll be the rest of season answer.

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Follow the points, they're in Buffalo

(Gregory Fisher / USA Today)

Q: I’m having the darndest time picking out my two flexes.

Amari, Kincaid, JSN, G Davis … (unless we think Kupp is worth a sit). Indecisiveness isn’t good for the 1st round. - Dallan W.

Your playoffs started early! Good luck this week. I’d go with the Bills, Kincaid and Davis. I don’t have the highest hopes for Kupp, but Elijah Moore has been so dominant in Cleveland the last two games that I’m worried Cooper won’t see enough (Joe Flacco or DTR) targets to make something happen.

Follow the points, and that’s Buffalo for you.

Why I like Waddle over Pollard

Q: Flex spot. Half-PPR. Pollard or Waddle. - Ken W.

I have no issue sitting Pollard against the league’s worst fantasy matchup. On the other side, Waddle gets a great matchup with Tennessee.

Even if he’s not Tyreek Hill, he still offers more upside than Pollard this week.

Breece Hall or Keaton Mitchell?

(Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)

Q: Between the injury, weather and tough sledding, would you sit Breece Hall in PPR for Keaton Mitchell? - Bill P.

I’m not as concerned about Houston for Hall as I am about the rest of his team. Plus, his not being 100 percent with that ankle isn’t great when playing in the mud. I have no problem rolling with Mitchell this week.

Reason to like Romeo Doubs on MNF

Q: PPR league, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Romeo Doubs or Jerry Jeudy? Thanks — Rick D.

I like Doubs in PPR versus the Giants tomorrow night. There’s no reason Jordan Love shouldn’t stay hot and it’s an excellent fantasy matchup. That’s also true for Jeudy, but Courtland Sutton is the ball hog there with Jeudy seeing only seven targets in his last two games.

DK Metcalf, Rashee Rice or Nico Collins?

(Photo: USA Today)

Q: Hey there Renee, happy holidays. DK Metcalf versus the Niners, Nico Collins versus the Jets or Rashee Rice versus the Bills? I do already have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. So triple stack scares me :) — Patrick K.

Happy holidays to you too, thanks! There is such a thing as too much Kansas City this season, but I do like Rice and how he’s being utilized. That’s the likely highest-scoring game of the week and should offer enough offense to go around. There are a couple of reasons to not like Collins, including the weather and the Jets’ secondary. But if Geno Smith doesn’t start, Metcalf’s opportunities likely take a huge dive. I would wait until Smith’s status is announced; if he’s 100 percent good to go, start Metcalf. If not, start Rice.

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Don't wait on Aaron Jones this week

Q: I need a RB2. Aaron Jones or Dameon Pierce? — Tyler B.

You can’t rely on Jones starting Monday night, so gotta go with Pierce. It’s much easier to run on the Jets than it is to pass on them, plus weather should force a bit more of a run-heavy game plan for Houston.

Drake London, Chris Godwin or Amari Cooper?

(Photo: USA Today)

Q: Full PPR, win and I’m in the playoffs. Need to decide on a flex spot between Chris Godwin, Drake London, and Amari Cooper. Who do I go with? — Kevin H.

London has the best matchup here as the Bucs rank fifth in fantasy points allowed to WRs, while the Falcons are the league’s fifth-worst matchup for receivers. Cooper is healthy enough to play, but with Joe Flacco. Or Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Still, he also has a plus matchup on paper, or Elijah Moore does anyway. London is who I’d start based on his clear No. 1 receiving role and matchup.

Why I'm confident in Derrick Henry this week

Q: Half PPR, choosing between Nico Collins versus Jets, Derrick Henry versus Dolphins and Cooper Kupp versus Ravens as my final flex in a win-and-get-in scenario. Thanks for a great season! — Quentin B.

Henry it is. I’m trying to avoid the downpour and Sauce Gardner in the Jets game. Though Kupp scored last week, he hasn’t been the kind of player I’d want to trust in a must-win scenario. Henry took it easy this week, but the fact that he was cleared immediately gives me all the confidence I need. Expect Tennessee to try very hard to control the time of possession in this game which means a LOT of Henry.

Which WR should I sit?

(Photo: USA Today)

Q: Pick three, half PPR: Courtland Sutton, Davante Adams, Puka Nacua or Brandin Cooks? Nacua's tough matchup and Cooks' great one has me overthinking if I should go Cooks over Nacua. — Jonathan C.

This is really tough. I’m comfortable starting all of them, so nice management of your team! It’s always good news when you’re probably going to be in good shape either way, but if it were my roster, I’d sit Sutton.

Jayden Reed, Jakobi Meyers or Chuba Hubbard?

Q: Jayden Reed, Jakobi Meyers or Chuba Hubbard as flex in full PPR? Thanks as always! — Johnny R.

These are all fine options, but I’d go with Meyers here. He’s a PPR favorite and it should be a competitive and hopefully high-scoring game in Las Vegas. Love what Hubbard has been doing, but I’m leery of New Orleans. Reed should also be decent, but Meyers just has that 8/80/1 upside that’s so key.

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Puka Nacua over Cooper Kupp this week

(Photo: USA Today)

Q: Need a RB and a flex out of these four: James Cook, D'Andre Swift, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp. — Nathan L.

I’d go with Cook and Nacua here. Swift saw his second-highest carry total against Dallas in Week 9, but did next to nothing with it (43 yards). He helped his day with two catches for 31 yards, but also fumbled twice. As for the Rams, it’s pretty clear that Nacua is the favorite target for Matthew Stafford. It’s a tough matchup but Nacua just put up a great game versus Cleveland, so I don’t see any reason to sit him for Kupp, who has continued to struggle and is perhaps not fully healed from his earlier injuries.

Don't love Raheem Mostert's matchup this week

Q: Raheem Mostert, Rachaad White, and Joe Mixon. I have to sit one. — Coach G.

I’m tempted to say White based on the matchup, but taking my own advice above, I think it’s Mostert. The Titans aren’t a friendly fantasy matchup for RBs, and Miami is a nearly two-TD favorite at home Monday night. If the Dolphins do get out to a big lead, I expect Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to be the reason, and Mostert has been less productive in blowout games.

Good spot for Jerick McKinnon?

(Photo: USA Today)

Q: Aaron Jones (assuming he plays) or Jerick McKinnon? — Trevor M.

Here’s where you could go very wrong making this assumption. I’d lean toward him not playing, based on who he is and how the Packers typically approach tricky injuries with an abundance of caution. In a decent matchup versus Buffalo with Isiah Pacheco out, this is the perfect time to start McKinnon with confidence.

Sit Tony Pollard?

(Photo: USA Today)

As lenient as the Philly pass defense is (most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and WRs), they give up the fewest to running backs. Tony Pollard’s had a polarizing season so far and coming off three good weeks, we have both the Primacy and Recency Effects screaming at our brains to keep him in. Pollard had some duds in the middle weeks against friendly run defenses like Arizona and the Giants but was running into a brick wall when he faced Philadelphia the first time, not to mention the 49ers, Patriots or Rams. If you have someone in the wings who could offer a high workload in a better matchup, I’d go for it. Dallas isn’t dumb; they’re going to go out there to try to beat the Eagles through the air like they did the first time when Dak Prescott threw for a season-high 44 times.

Need a QB replacement? Look at Gardner Minshew

If the QB injuries have got you at last and Gardner Minshew is available, I like him a lot this week. Week 13 saw both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce supported by a strong pass game from Minshew, who finished with 312 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. The Bengals are the seventh-best fantasy opponent, giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. The game should be a close one which further points to Minshew being in a position to succeed.

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Is Panthers WR Jonathan Mingo worth a start?

(Photo: USA Today)

While Carolina’s new coaching staff didn’t exactly light the fantasy world on fire in Week 13, they did give the Bucs a run for their money. What stood out to me was the quick switch in WR hierarchy. Adam Thielen has been a PPR beast with multiple double-digit target games, but it was Jonathan Mingo who saw 10 targets (6/69) in Week 13. The Bucs pass defense is a sieve, but the timing certainly makes it seem like the new regime in Carolina wants to see what they have in the rookie. It makes sense to start developing chemistry between Mingo and Bryce Young now if the two are to be the building blocks of the future franchise. Unfortunately, Young hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in a game since Week 8 and New Orleans boasts an above-average pass defense. Still, as underdogs, we have to expect the Panthers to rely on some big plays to stay in this game, giving Mingo the shot to be a fantasy hero.

Consider Dameon Pierce this week?

While the Houston Texans are facing a formidable pass defense in the New York Jets, the run game should find an easier path to success. Dameon Pierce overtook Devin Singletary in workload in Week 13 and ended up with the rushing touchdown. If he was dropped in your league (I see him available in about 35 percent of Yahoo leagues) or if you’ve been keeping him on the bench I like the idea of rolling him out this week. Not only are the Jets more susceptible to the run, Houston is a big favorite here which could spell favorable game script for Pierce. All signs point to a robust and successful run game by the Texans, giving Pierce the kind of upside you want.

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